September 6, 2010 UP MARKET Technical indicators are positive and momentum is high and strong indicating that the index will likely to have a continuation this week. Oscillator, however, is flashing overbought at 73.81 RSI. Thus, some investors are expected to also lighten their positions to profit take. The main index might vacillate between 3620 to 3790 points.

August 31 , 2010 The overall oscillator has settled at a much neutral level at 57.79 RSI after last week’s correction. Although the index closed with a bearish candle, prices managed to stay above the 20-day moving average, which is considered good. Momentum has slowed down too and is now moving flat, a reason to assume that the market will likely to consolidate in the coming week, at least until a new string of market catalysts surfaced. The index may vacillate between 3520 to 3620 points.

August 24, 2010 After going up for five (5) straight days, the market is now in an overbought condition with 73.09 RSI. Share prices are expected to make a pullback before rising again. This correction can be used as re-entry point specially that investors are banking on the country’s 2Q growth. Moreover, other important technical indicators are also positive. Minor support and resistance sits at 3520-3640 points, respectively.

August 16 , 2010 Although the overall oscillator thinned down and was adjusted to a neutral level, other indicators are still pointing south. Market momentum just turned weaker as shown by the sloping downward direction of the MACD with its histogram placed below zero. RSI is at 54.54 range while minor support and resistance of the main index stood at 3400-3540, respectively.

August 16, 2010 Although the overall oscillator thinned down and was adjusted to a neutral level, other indicators are still pointing south. Market momentum just turned weaker as shown by the sloping downward direction of the MACD with its histogram placed below zero. RSI is at 54.54 range while minor support and resistance of the main index stood at 3400-3540, respectively.

August 9, 2010 After a week-long intermittent advance, the market closed with an indecisive candle. But momentum, nevertheless, indicated that the uptrend might still continue. MACD is heading south with its histogram plotted above zero, which is bullish. Volume was likewise notable, including over Php2b worth of foreign buying. However, a pullback is also expected anytime since the market is almost overbought with an RSI of 69.44. Minor support and resistance stood at 3490 and 3570, respectively.

August 2, 2010 The local market will likely to continue its flat movement this week with a bit leaning on the negative side. Market momentum remained weak as indicated by its sliding MACD and its below zero histogram, a bearish territory. RSI is neutral at 57.36 while the main index may range between 3375 minor support to 3490 resistance.

July 26, 2010 SIDEWAYS/WAIT AND SEE Local share prices narrowly moved during the entire week amidst a confluence of uncertainties still anchored on the current major concerns of investors such as the European sovereign debt crisis, the condition of the Chinese economy and the anticipated dent on the U.S. recovery, Prices were ranging and key technical indicators were somewhat indecisive. This may indicate that the general market sentiment may continue in the coming week Compared from the previous overbought condition of the oscillator, RSI has gone down to a much neutral level of 57.86. PSEi may range between 3375 minor support to 3490 resistance.

July 19, 2010 Continuation of market correction/Sell on rallies In general, market indicators are still staying within the positive territories. Share prices are above 20-day moving averages while macd is managing to stay above zero, which is favorable. MACD-histogram, however, is indicating that the current market momentum is weakening, a sign that investors may extend last week’s profit taking. Aside from this, the overall market oscillator remained high. Even with the late week’s profit taking, the market is still at 63.78 RSI which can be considered a little overbought. The index may vacillate between 3370 minor support to 3500 points.

July 12, 2010 The market is expected to continue its slow trending movement this coming week. MACD is rising a bit, an indication that market momentum is starting to heat up but conviction should also be increased to sustain it, which is not the case at this point. This was also demonstrated by an indecisive Japanese candle that closed the trading last Friday. Market cautiousness can be lessen if investors will see more buying volume and less foreign selling. The index may vacillate between 3330 minor support to 3500 points. RSI climbed higher to 58.29.

June 27, 2010 Consolidation with negative bias Both technical and fundamental indicators were showing the likelihood of a flat direction for the coming week. Although momentum indicator stayed within the bullish area, its strength is slowly diminishing. Complementing this is the cheerless scenario of the local and major equities market. On the positive note, however, the long term trend remained integral and thus, overall, any market dip can be used as re-entry points by most investors. RSI is still a bit high at 59.68. Minor support and resistance are 3290 and 3440, respectively.

June 21, 2010 Share prices continues to trade above relevant MAs and unlike the previous weeks, momentum is also now increasing. This can be seen through the rising MACD and its histogram, an indication that the market is gaining strength. Likewise, volume is getting thicker and this could help sustain a break-out. Just be wary of the flashing overbought warning with 59.08 RSI. Immediate support and resistance is at 3290 and 3440, respectively.

June 15, 2010 With its current indicators showing a flat MACD and a climb a bit above the 14 day moving average of the index, the market might consolidate and could possibly retest resistance levels at 3330 points. Support is at 3200. There is a lot of room for the market to accommodate fresh positions as RSI is still neutral at 51.92.

June 7, 2010 Profit Taking / Wait and See The local mart had a very volatile week. It finally broke the 3330 barrier Thursday with minimal transactions and finished the week almost flat and indecisive with heavy volume. This somehow indicated that the conviction about the break-out was weak. Although momentum is on the rise, the market remained shaky and very sensitive with negative news. Since the market is also a bit overbought, profit taking is expected to dominate this week’s trading activity. Investors might opt to be liquid until a clearer investment environment is seen. Support and resistance were at 3330 and 3450, respectively. RSI is 58.86.

May 31, 2010 Neutral Market After a series of sell-offs, the market finally took a breather and made a rebound. Share prices went up for three consecutive days but volume was thin and foreign investors were still selling. Market weakness has softened, MACD, although below zero, is curbing upward, indicating that the market might continue to go up. But price rise should be complimented by strong volume, otherwise, it will be difficult to turn bullish and start making fresh positions again. Until we see that, it will be a neutral market.

May 25, 2010 After dropping for ten (10) straight days, the market is now approaching oversold area with 43 RSI. It also ended the week with an indecisive spinning top candle stick, indicating a signal that the trend maybe reversing. Moreover volume has slowed down by 14% on overall turnovers and 36% on foreign selling. Total market value transaction was at Php15.82b, lower than the previous week’s Php18.40b (net of block transactions) while net selling foreign balance shrunk to Php1.38b from Php2.16b. Investors are expected to keep their cautious stance and will still fix their eyes on trading overseas. One major factor for the market’s wait-and-see attitude can be the differing opinions of the U.S. officials regarding the impact of the European debt crisis on the global economic recovery.

May 17, 2010 Indicators are all pointing north. The market is expected to continue its climb and might break its resistance level to test new highs this coming week. Positive news on the resolution of the oil spill problem as well as the good impact of the US$1 Trillion European bail out might serve as catalysts to sustain the mounting market momentum. Furthermore, the First Quarter corporate earnings as well as the better than expected results of the May 10 election can also help fuel investors confidence.

May 11, 2010 Down Market The market is expected to carry on its downside bias in the coming week, as momentum continues to dive deeper. Most share prices were also below their moving averages indicating sell signals. Bollinger band is likewise suggesting a strong signal about the bleakness of the market based on its wide volatility gap. Although fundamentals like corporate profits are still intact, investors are expected to still be risk averse specially since the dilemma on the subprime and Lehman brothers is still very much alive. With the recent pullbacks, RSI is now down at 48.42, a neutral level.

May 4, 2010 The market is expected to be sluggish and might continue its movement sideways this week. MACD is still in a hiatus and is moving straight, but at the same time share prices were staying above the 20-day moving average. This indicates that market sentiment is still generally positive but trading activity will likely go slow..

April 26, 2010 Sideways to positive. The market has stopped diverging last week. It will likely move from its present sideways movement to an uptrend this week. The PSEi might retest the 3330 territory. Support is at 3130 points. Although MACD-histogram is still on the bear side, the weakness of the market is slowly thinning. Value turnovers were also back to normal levels at around Php3b daily average.

April 19, 2010 Correction. PSEi is still in the uptrend but momentum showed some weakness after it failed to sustain its last week’s run-up on profit taking. Average value turnover (net of block transactions) climbed to Php5.15b. This figure is very near the area of value turnover during the last bull market. Moreover, of the Php25b total peso transactions, foreign buying accounted for almost 40% at Php3.9b.

April 12, 2010 After closing higher by nearly 3%, the Philippine stock market is expected to continue rising and might test its 3330 resistance level. Momentum has not change its course sustained by increased investors confidence on improving economic fundamentals, the latest of which, rising employment rate. Even if its lower than economists’ estimate, the latest U.S. labor report is still considered indicative of economic recovery alongside other fundamentals, which surged ahead, like corporate profits and consumer spending.

April 5, 2010 OUTLOOK April 5-9, 2010 Mix, Sideways. Technically, the market is still within the bullish area but momentum is weakening and thus, a correction, which started last week, might continue before retesting the 3200 area again. The market may just get some push from the improving economic fundamentals overseas, latest of which, was the improved jobs rate for March. Employers added 162,000 jobs after losing a revised 14,000 jobs in February.

March 22, 2010 Main Index, PSEi. Down. The main index continuous to range, building ground with minimal volume. Aside from little liquidity, market momentum is also dreadfully feeble and thus the local mart’s best direction, at least this week, could be sideways, unless some positive catalysts overseas will ram it higher. The domestic front is still in dearth for fresh news to fuel investors cautious optimism which is understandable since the market seemed pricing in election uncertainties. RSI is neutral at 58.60.

March 15, 2010 The market attempted to climb over the 3100 mark and was able to sustain it for most of the week. But with the absence of necessary liquidity to push prices higher, cautious investors chose to pocket-in gains in the meantime, pulling the index back below the 3100 level again. Fragile recovery of the world’s biggest economy could have undermined investors confidence. As per report “The Congressional Budget Office projects President Obama’s spending proposals would produce a record $1.5 trillion budget deficit this year and a $1.3 trillion deficit in 2011”. But cautious optimism on the local market can be sensed through the consistency of foreign buying balances, which has been the case since the beginning of the year. For this week, Although average value turnover which totalled Php14.4b is low vis-à-vis the market’s daily average turnover of Php3.2b, foreign trades accounted for 37% or Php5.4b, 14% of which, or Php1.74b are foreign buying.

March 8, 2010 While Asian stocks rose on global recovery optimism, PSEi moved flat with a minuscule drop of 2.83 points or .001% to end at 3,040.92. The local market was generally neutral with investors selectively trading on short positions evidenced by quick profit taking as opportunity comes. There was also shifting of funds from one stock to another but with preference on volatile issues with corporate news, thus, the consolidation.

March 1, 2010 Review. Month-on-month, the local mart finished higher by 3.07% with Php54.87b trades. Most of these gains were generated last week which posted a growth of 2.19% on renewed hope of improved economic performance here and abroad. Better corporate profits and calculations on the impact of election spending helped push local share prices, particularly the blue chips and second liners while the speculative issues added excitement on trading activity.

February 22, 2010 Negative to flat market. Last week’s market diminutive break-away move which pushed PSEi above its 3000 mark was not sustained since larger deals were traded short term to lack-in gains. Momentum managed to stay within the positive boundaries but it is already thinning and MACD-histogram have started to curb down, thus, prices may continue to slide more this coming week. But news that the U. S. Fed might assure congress it will not announce an increase in interest rates sooner could cushion share prices. Apparently, policy makers are in a challenging position to balance inflation and economic growth.

February 22-26, 2010

February 15, 2010 Up Market. Cautious buy. Since the other week, the market has been steadily thinning down and although momentum remained within the bearish territory, it is now diverging upward. There is a buy signal from the 20-d moving average, which moved above closing prices, thus, the market is expected to go up. Better outlook on production and home sales overseas may help sustain the rally. But with these mix indicators, however, investors should be prudent. Meanwhile, foreigners are in the buying side again with a net of Php1.45b trades. This helped eased the market’s oversold condition, which is now at 50.01 RSI.

February 8, 2010 Consolidation to negative. The mid-week rebound somehow calmed investors nervousness as shown in this week’s 14-point drop of the main index or .50% to 2953.19 compared to its nearly 4% decrease last week. In general, however, sentiment remained the same. The market is expected to move sideways to negative and to vacillate between 2900 to 2980.

February 1, 2010 Consolidation to negative. The mid-week rebound somehow calmed investors nervousness as shown in this week’s 14-point drop of the main index or .50% to 2953.19 compared to its nearly 4% decrease last week. In general, however, sentiment remained the same. The market is expected to move sideways to negative and to vacillate between 2900 to 2980.

January 25, 2010 Down Market. The local mart might continue to sell and retest its 2980 support level. Momentum is frail and sloping down following last week’s strong selling pressure brought about by news of President Barack Obama’s lending curb plan and intention of China to raise interest rates to cool down growth. MACD-histogram started to bud below zero, a bearish territory.

January 18, 2010 Outlook – January 18-22, 2010 Continuation of rally. Although the local mart has been reluctantly vacillating for a month now, its momentum remained intact and is expected to continue climbing higher this week. The main index is on the edge of a break-out from its current level and might attempt to touch its next stop at 3,200 points. Among index stocks, AGI, BDO, BPI, FPH, GLO, GMA7 and TEL are technically good buys.

January 11, 2010 Positive week. The market is expected to go up this week basing on its MACD-Histogram which started to show above zero indicating an upside potential. This is in addition to prices crossing above 1-month moving averages. However, the dragonfly doji candle stick which closed last week’s trading could also be a concern, so cautious optimism may prevail. In addition, third liners are expected to continue adding color on trading activity.

December 21, 2009 Sideways to negative. The local mart’s performance for the coming week is expected to be mix and might generally move sideways with some negative bias. Momentum remained weak and although this weakness is already declining by the day, MA indicates a further slide of share prices.

December 14, 2009 The local mart violated the 3000 mark support level mid-week but managed to regain some of its losses and closed notably higher at 3031.13 points. The pullback, however, took a toll on the overall market performance which resulted to a 1.51% collective loss of PSEi Biggest losers were holdings and c-i sectors ending lower by 1.91% at 1563.04 and 1.72% at 4537.29 points, respectively. Value turnover was also thinner from Php12.99b to Php10.95b, of which, Php407m were net foreign selling. Due to political uncertainties and lack of domestic market movers, investors took most of their trading cues from overseas markets.

December 7, 2009 PSEi broke-out from the 3,100 resistance Tuesday but failed to sustain its surge and traced back to close lower, but nevertheless, a bit higher by over half a percent or 17 points, week-on-week. Bulls and bears struggled to outwit each other but neither of them have won as both the main indicator and the broader all-shares index closed indecisive.

December 1, 2009 The local mart dithered and closed a bit indecisive indicating that neither buyers nor sellers had won during this week’s trading sessions. PSEi closed at 3044.97, down .77% or 23.76 points week-on-week, but year-to-date. Still a gain of 62.58%. The rest of the indices ended mixed with the property sector incurring most of the losses. Its index finished lower by 3.15% or 35.81 points at 1099.45 pts followed by the commercials with 2.83% or 131 pts at 4506.18. Holdings and financial sectors also pulled back, the former dropped 1.35% or 21.81 pts at 1582.00 while the latter gave back 1.01% or 6.86 pts at 670.36 pts. Services and mining were this week’s neutralizers. Service index rose by 1.27% or 18.84 pts at 1498.06 while the mines increased by 1.44% or 166.46 pts at 11,679.24.

November 23, 2009 Although generally optimistic, investors were more vigilant this week after the market’s recent break-out from the 3000-mark as its sustainability has since being surveyed. But despite the 20% drop on value turnovers to Php18b, the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index (PSEi) managed to post its highest level since January closing out at 3,068.73, up 1.13% or 34.41 points week-on-week and 63.85% year-to-date. Moreover, foreign transactions, which has been consistently leaving a net buying balance, for three weeks now, has been positively contributing to investors’ market confidence. Net foreign buying balance rose by nearly 40% to Php741m.

November 16, 2009 The market breached the 3000-mark mid-week and had a run up for succeeding periods but closed the week with a correction immediately after it went overbought. Sellers dominated Friday’s trading as investors opted to profit take while awaiting concrete evidence that the index will be able to sustain its rally. But although Friday’s retreat caused a bit of nervous to some investors, cautious optimism still prevailed. This was substantiated when buyers bounced and pushed prices back up again, reducing earlier losses.

November 9, 2009 The PSE Composite Index finished the week flat at 2931.47 but still a record gain of 48.84% year-to-date. Turnovers improved from Php18b toPhp21b with foreigners reverting back to buying with over Php4b from their Php.5b selling a week ago. Trailing Emerging Markets yet still at record levels are the S&P 500 at 1069.30 up 15.29% for the year, and the Dow Jones at 10023.42, up 11.96% for the year. Major indices worldwide are in the midst of a 3 – 4% retracement from early to mid October highs, yet rising momentum across the board suggests a continuation of a strong 4th Quarter.

October 19, 2009 The market was not able to break from its week-long sluggish performance as PSEi narrowly vacillated between a high of 2,942.79 and a low of 2,922.82, which was also its closing, on a P2.7b daily average transaction. C-I was the lone winner, modestly gaining 1.62% or an equivalent of 67.81 points to end at 4,259.34. Conversely, property had the biggest losses with 3.70% drop on its index or 42.39 points at 1,104.63 followed by the financials with a drop of 1.24% or 7.93 points at 629.33 while the rest had meager decreases. .96% or 15.57 points at 1,607.00 for holdings, .28% or 4.17 points at 1,504.39 for services and .60% or 47.45 points at 7,851.96 for the mines.

October 12, 2009 All sectors bounced back led by the Mining and Oils with 6.70% or nearly 500 points jump in its average at 7,899.41. Mostly spurred by the upbeat movement of the overseas market, the main indicator gained 4.35% or an equivalent of 122.75 points at 2, 942.78 with increased trading activity. Value turnovers ballooned to Php103b due to huge block transactions of San Miguel, Meralco, PLDT and ALI.

October 5, 2009 The market remained cautiously optimistic despite the recent devastation brought about by the killer typhoon Ondoy. Although it finished mix, the main indicator was resilient with its .05% or 1.31 points drop to end at 2,820.03. Holdings, property and services posted gains while the other half of the market declined. Holdings index increased by .92% or 14.52 points at 1.593.44 while the averages of property and services respectively improved by 1.18% or 12.92 points at 1,109.58 and 1.53% or 21.61 points at 1,433.75. On the negative turf were financials which meagerly dropped by .55% or 3.44 points at 617.25; commercials which declined by 2.68% or 109.47 at 3,969.84 and the mines which was the biggest loser with a significant drop of 7.69% or 616.82 points at 7,403.27. The broader market was down with less than a percent or 16.72 points at 1,790.20.

September 28, 2009 Week-on-week, the local equities ended mix but nevertheless pulled through from its lacklustre trading with a modest gain of 1.15% or 32.01 points at 2,821.34. Sectors which supplied the points to push the index higher were C-I (+1.84% or 73.56 pts at 4,079.31); Property (+2.39% or 25.64 pts at 1,096.64) and Services (+1.88% or 26.06 pts at 1,412.14) while the remaining sectors closed at the negative turf. Financials retreated by 1.18% or 7.39 points at 4,079.31, Holdings slightly dropped lower by .38% or 5.97 points at 1,578.92 whereas the biggest loser, mining & oil significantly pulled back to finish at 8,02.09, a decline of 4.07% or 340.24 points. The broader index slightly advanced by .41% or 7.35 points at 1,806.92.

September 22, 2009 Political jitters engulfed the local mart during the week ignoring the moderate advance of the regional markets and even the stable sideways movement of dow jones. The recent expose of Senator Panfilo Lacson on PLDT saying that the ousted President Joseph Estrada had coerced the Yuchengcos into selling their PLDT stake to First Pacific Co. Ltd. of Hong Kong led by Manuel V. Pangilinan years ago, sent investors to a mild panic, especially when it was backed by a statement from tycoon Alfonso Yuchengco. PSEi lost 2.84% or 81.50 points to finish at 2,789.33. The broader market likewise lost 1.28% or 23.37 points at 1,799.57.

September 14, 2009 The market rose by 1.41% or 39.84 points at 2,870.83. Most of the gains were contributed by the property and holding sectors which dominated the floor, especially during the latter part of the week, where gains were mostly registered. The late rally was inspired by the rise of the overseas market as it reacted on Geithner comments and drop in jobless claims as well as on strong debt auction. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, during his speech before the Congressional Oversight Panel, mentioned that the focus is now shifting from rescuing the economy to growth preparation. He also added that it isn't likely that more bank bailout money will be needed. On the other hand, new claims for unemployment fell by 26,000 the other week to 550,000.

September 8, 2009

This week, the market was engulfed by profit taking as it finally heed its overbought condition. PSE index pulled back by 1.84% or 53.19 points at 2,830.99.

The property sector, which thrived last week, gave back the most with 4.44% or 48.85 points cut on its average at 1,052.56 followed by the holdings and service sectors with 2.73% or 44.17 points and 2.66% or 38.91 decline to respectively finish lower at 1,576 and 1,423.80. Financial incurred a minimal loss of .96% or 5.96 points at 617.30 while the commercials and the mines opposed the trend.

Some investors made moderate shifts on select c-I issues like EDC, MWC, FGEN, FPH and MER while the rest took advantage on the speculative trades of buoyant third liners like TA, MIC, LC and VUL.

September 8, 2009 This week, the market was engulfed by profit taking as it finally heed its overbought condition. PSE index pulled back by 1.84% or 53.19 points at 2,830.99. The property sector, which thrived last week, gave back the most with 4.44% or 48.85 points cut on its average at 1,052.56 followed by the holdings and service sectors with 2.73% or 44.17 points and 2.66% or 38.91 decline to respectively finish lower at 1,576 and 1,423.80. Financial incurred a minimal loss of .96% or 5.96 points at 617.30 while the commercials and the mines opposed the trend.

September 1, 2009 Market optimism emanated from the positive outlook of Fed Chief, Bernanke about the situation of the the global economic recovery which was released last week plus the impact of the month end window dressing pushed the local mart higher by 6.03% or 164 points at 2,884.18 with thicker volume. The rally was led by the property sector which surged by 14.17% or 136.69 points at 1,101.41. It also accounted for 26% of the entire market peso transaction recording Php5.03b worth of trades. Big index stocks such as ALI (from 9.70 to 10.75), MEG (1.24 to 1.62) and SMPH (9.50 to 10.50) respectively made stellar performances significantly gaining 10.82%, 30.64% and 10.52% in just a span of five (5) trading days.

August 24, 2009 This week, the local mart finally succumbed to a significant correction as all indicators uniformly closed lower with the main index falling by nearly 5% or 129 points at 2,720.18 and the broader market pulling back by 3.47% or 62.69 points at 1,744.29. The commercial sector suffered the biggest loss. It dropped 5.80% or 242 points to end at 3,944.18. Most of these losses were contributed by the sector's top three heaviest index members, Meralco, EDC and MWC. MER plummeted 27 pesos or 12.11% from its previous close as the market tried to find its real value after a speculative run, which lasted for a couple of weeks, mainly due to control fight between the camps of SMC and TEL. EDC lost 4.44% or .20 centavos at 4.30 per share while MWC declined by 6.45% or 1 (one) peso at 14.50 per piece.

August 17, 2009 Local stocks ended the week with a pull back as investors carefully monitored the movement of the overseas market which in turn closely watching important fundamentals that will give a clearer economic picture such as consumer spending, housing and manufacturing data. Week-on-week, however, PSEi managed to climb 2.41% more or 67.03 points closing higher to 2,850 which was 20 points short from its resistance level.

August 10, 2009 This week, most asian markets ended lower ahead of the U.S. job reports and the Philippines was not spared. As investors liquidate to take the sidelines, the local mart finally succumbed to the long overdue correction. But since half of the market remained optimistic on the easing recession, equities had a mix finished. PSEi recorded a moderate drop of .55% or 15.35 points at 2,782.98 whereas the broader all-shares index posted a modest gain of .17% or 2.96 points at 1,771.12. Financials pulled back by .30% or 1.81 at 599.02; holdings declined 1.06% or 16.08 points at 1,497.28 while services, which was the week’s biggest loser, ended lower by 2.82% or 40.66 points at 1,400.45. Conversely, the Industrial and property sectors managed to survive and even posted modest gains. Industrial index closed higher by .86% or 35.94 points at 4,212.52 and property index advanced by .83% or 8.02 points at 975.56. Mining & oil sector had an exciting close as it took the center stage Friday with the stellar performance of lepanto and philex on speculations that big investors were coming in. The demand it created pushed their respective share prices to record highs elevating the sector’s index to 7,630.86 points, a jump of 14%.