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By Claire S. Quiray
WEEKLY OUTLOOK – JANUARY 24-27, 2012
POSITIVE TREND TO CONTINUE WITH TAPERED STRENGTH
WEEK-ON-WEEK:
PSEi = 4747.90 from 4,613.83 +134.07 points or 2.91%
52-WEEK RANGE = 3,705.18 - 4,747.90
Although market strength is tapering off, share prices are expected to continue rising as shown by technical indicators.
Week-on-week, PSEi closed higher by 134.07 points or 2.91% at 4747.90 with moderately lesser but ample trades of over Php6.2b daily average. The market’s rally was further fuelled by favourable foreign and domestic economic fundamentals last week. Aside from anticipation of a healthier corporate profits, Banko Sentral’s 25 basis points interest rate cut was the latest in the local front. Meanwhile, the efforts of the European government to resolve their debt crisis were somehow easing fears and investors’ concerns.
Foreign Investors were still in a buying binge. This week, less than Php2b worth of shares were added to their accumulated buying balance which is now at Php10.96b. The 2011 net foreign buying was at Php56b.
These foreign inflows could have been helping the market defy its overbought condition. For nearly a month now, the market has been trading at overbought levels (a sell signal) but is refusing to reverse, (except for brief profit takings), an indication that there will be a continuation.
All momentum indicators are still pointing upward but it will be good to note that the strength of the market is also tapering off. Currently, RSI is still overbought at 77 level (14-d).
Support is at 4500.
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